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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Melvin Guillard won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1353

Elo1490

Mac DanzigvsMelvin GuillardUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · Saturday, July 27, 2013Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Melvin Guillard won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:47

Model Prediction: Mac Danzig wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Melvin Guillard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mac Danzig at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Melvin Guillard enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Melvin Guillard has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mac Danzig

Red Corner

Melvin Guillard

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1353

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mac DanzigL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Stevenson · Dec 10

vs Matt Wiman · Oct 11

vs Efrain Escudero · Apr 12

vs Takanori Gomi · Nov 12

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 13

latest

Melvin GuillardL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jan 12

vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12

vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12

vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mac DanzigMetricMelvin Guillard

3.39

Strikes / min

2.96

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

1.85

57%

Strike defense

66%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

1.30

46%

Takedown defense

61%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.05Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mac DanzigMelvin Guillard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mac Danzig(7 fights)Melvin Guillard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.6|Blue +137.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mac DanzigTargetMelvin Guillard

By target zone

21% acc · 35%

Head

36% acc · 69%

80% acc · 17%

Body

89% acc · 21%

92% acc · 48%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

40% acc · 96%

Distance

38% acc · 77%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

86% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mac Danzig rounds

even

Melvin Guillard rounds

Round 1Melvin Guillard edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:05

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 2Melvin Guillard edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 56

Sig Strikes

39 / 88

41%

Sig Str %

45.5%

24 / 57

Total Strikes

43 / 92

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Melvin Guillard	23 / 56	23 / 56	0 / 0
1	Mac Danzig	13 / 33	14 / 34	0 / 0
2	Melvin Guillard	16 / 32	20 / 36	0 / 0
2	Mac Danzig	10 / 23	10 / 23	0 / 1

Mac Danzig

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Melvin Guillard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11