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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Matt Wiman won · SUB R1

Elo1353

Elo1392

Mac DanzigvsMatt WimanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin · Saturday, June 12, 2010Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Matt Wiman won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:45

Model Prediction: Mac Danzig wins(70.7%)

Actual result: Matt Wiman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mac Danzig at -102 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mac Danzig enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matt Wiman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mac Danzig is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Matt Wiman has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Mac Danzig

Red Corner

Matt Wiman

Blue Corner

-102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-108

(52%)

1353

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mac DanzigL3 streak

oldest →

vs Matt Wiman · Oct 11

vs Efrain Escudero · Apr 12

vs Takanori Gomi · Nov 12

KOvs Melvin Guillard · Jul 13

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 13

latest

Matt WimanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs TJ Grant · Jan 13

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Nov 14

KOvs Luis Pena · Jun 19

vs Joe Solecki · Dec 19

KOvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mac DanzigMetricMatt Wiman

3.39

Strikes / min

3.17

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.57

57%

Strike defense

51%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

2.13

46%

Takedown defense

56%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.05evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mac DanzigMatt Wiman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mac Danzig(7 fights)Matt Wiman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -39.7|Blue +39.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mac DanzigTargetMatt Wiman

By target zone

50% acc · 75%

Head

14% acc · 25%

Body

50% acc · 25%

Leg

67% acc · 50%

By position

60% acc · 75%

Distance

27% acc · 75%

Clinch

33% acc · 25%

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mac Danzig rounds

even

Matt Wiman rounds

Round 1Mac Danzig edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:57

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 8

Sig Strikes

4 / 12

50%

Sig Str %

33%

9 / 15

Total Strikes

6 / 14

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Wiman	4 / 12	6 / 14	0 / 0	2
1	Mac Danzig	4 / 8	9 / 15	1 / 1	0

Mac Danzig

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Matt Wiman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10