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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mac Danzig won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1357

Mac DanzigvsEfrain EscuderoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · Saturday, April 21, 2012Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Mac Danzig won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mac Danzig wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Mac Danzig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mac Danzig at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mac Danzig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Efrain Escudero has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mac Danzig

Red Corner

Efrain Escudero

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1353

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mac DanzigL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Stevenson · Dec 10

vs Matt Wiman · Oct 11

vs Takanori Gomi · Nov 12

KOvs Melvin Guillard · Jul 13

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 13

latest

Efrain EscuderoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Leonardo Santos · Sep 14

vs Rodrigo de Lima · Feb 15

SUBvs Drew Dober · Jun 15

vs Leandro Silva · Nov 15

vs Kevin Lee · Apr 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mac DanzigMetricEfrain Escudero

3.39

Strikes / min

2.92

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.30

57%

Strike defense

63%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

1.31

46%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.05evenly matched on net striking+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mac DanzigEfrain Escudero

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mac Danzig(7 fights)Efrain Escudero(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.1|Blue +4.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +90.0|Blue -90.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mac DanzigTargetEfrain Escudero

By target zone

32% acc · 36%

Head

26% acc · 43%

96% acc · 40%

Body

75% acc · 27%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

89% acc · 30%

By position

48% acc · 69%

Distance

37% acc · 79%

88% acc · 31%

Clinch

86% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mac Danzig rounds

even

Efrain Escudero rounds

Round 1Mac Danzig edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:13

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 2Mac Danzig edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:31

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Mac Danzig edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control1:51

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 119

Sig Strikes

56 / 133

55.7%

Sig Str %

42.3%

130 / 190

Total Strikes

107 / 186

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 2

11%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:35

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Efrain Escudero	17 / 33	30 / 47	0 / 1	1
1	Mac Danzig	16 / 28	36 / 54	1 / 3	0
2	Efrain Escudero	15 / 44	31 / 61	0 / 1	0
2	Mac Danzig	21 / 40	44 / 63	0 / 1	0
3	Efrain Escudero	24 / 56	46 / 78	0 / 0	0
3	Mac Danzig	30 / 51	50 / 73	0 / 1	0

Mac Danzig

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Efrain Escudero

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9