Middleweight

5 Rounds

Yoel Romero won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1382

Lyoto MachidavsYoel RomeroUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · Saturday, June 27, 2015Hollywood, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Yoel Romero won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:38

Style matchupLyoto Machida: Well-roundedvsYoel Romero: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Yoel Romero wins(70.8%)

Actual result: Yoel Romero wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yoel Romero at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yoel Romero enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Lyoto Machida

Red Corner

Yoel Romero

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1491

Elo

1382

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lyoto MachidaW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 14

SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15

KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17

vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18

KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18

latest

Yoel RomeroL3 streak

oldest →

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 17

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Feb 18

vs Robert Whittaker · Jun 18

vs Paulo Costa · Aug 19

vs Israel Adesanya · Mar 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lyoto MachidaMetricYoel Romero

2.59

Strikes / min

3.44

1.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

61%

Strike defense

60%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

1.57

75%

Takedown defense

78%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.02evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lyoto MachidaYoel Romero

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lyoto Machida(10 fights)Yoel Romero(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +109.5|Blue -109.5

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lyoto MachidaTargetYoel Romero

By target zone

22% acc · 19%

Head

52% acc · 38%

55% acc · 35%

Body

50% acc · 21%

82% acc · 45%

Leg

81% acc · 40%

By position

49% acc · 100%

Distance

56% acc · 83%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lyoto Machida rounds

even

Yoel Romero rounds

Round 1Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 64

Sig Strikes

42 / 70

44.3%

Sig Str %

62.7%

31 / 64

Total Strikes

44 / 72

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yoel Romero	15 / 30	15 / 30	0 / 0
1	Lyoto Machida	12 / 28	12 / 28	0 / 0
2	Yoel Romero	17 / 27	17 / 27	0 / 1
2	Lyoto Machida	16 / 26	16 / 26	0 / 0
3	Yoel Romero	10 / 13	12 / 15	1 / 1
3	Lyoto Machida	3 / 10	3 / 10	0 / 0

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Yoel Romero

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13