Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Lyoto Machida won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Lyoto MachidavsRyan BaderUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · Saturday, August 4, 2012Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Lyoto Machida won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:32

Style matchupLyoto Machida: Well-roundedvsRyan Bader: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Lyoto Machida wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Lyoto Machida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lyoto Machida at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lyoto Machida is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Ryan Bader has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Ryan Bader has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Lyoto Machida

Red Corner

Ryan Bader

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lyoto MachidaW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15

KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15

KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17

vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18

KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18

latest

Ryan BaderW2 streak

oldest →

vs Phil Davis · Jan 15

vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15

KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16

KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lyoto MachidaMetricRyan Bader

2.59

Strikes / min

2.82

1.57

Strikes absorbed / min

1.39

61%

Strike defense

71%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

3.37

75%

Takedown defense

80%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.02evenly matched on net striking+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lyoto MachidaRyan Bader

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lyoto Machida(10 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lyoto MachidaTargetRyan Bader

By target zone

47% acc · 38%

Head

9% acc · 29%

90% acc · 43%

Body

33% acc · 14%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

57% acc · 57%

By position

66% acc · 90%

Distance

22% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lyoto Machida rounds

even

Ryan Bader rounds

Round 1Lyoto Machida edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Lyoto Machida edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 31

Sig Strikes

7 / 32

73.5%

Sig Str %

18.5%

21 / 31

Total Strikes

7 / 32

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ryan Bader	6 / 24	6 / 24	0 / 0
1	Lyoto Machida	15 / 24	15 / 24	0 / 0
2	Ryan Bader	1 / 8	1 / 8	0 / 0
2	Lyoto Machida	6 / 7	6 / 7	0 / 0

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16