Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Lyoto Machida won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1490

Lyoto MachidavsRandy CoutureUFC Prediction Result

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · Saturday, April 30, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Lyoto Machida won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:05

Style matchupLyoto Machida: Well-roundedvsRandy Couture: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Randy Couture wins(67.2%)

Actual result: Lyoto Machida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randy Couture at +318 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lyoto Machida has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Lyoto Machida

Red Corner

Randy Couture

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+318

(24%)

1491

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lyoto MachidaW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15

KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15

KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17

vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18

KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18

latest

Randy Couture

oldest →

SUBvs James Toney · Aug 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lyoto MachidaMetricRandy Couture

2.59

Strikes / min

2.85

1.57

Strikes absorbed / min

1.53

61%

Strike defense

59%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

2.78

75%

Takedown defense

58%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.02evenly matched on net striking+1.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lyoto MachidaRandy Couture

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lyoto Machida(10 fights)Randy Couture(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lyoto MachidaTargetRandy Couture

By target zone

23% acc · 60%

Head

19% acc · 80%

100% acc · 20%

Body

50% acc · 20%

75% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

30% acc · 87%

Distance

24% acc · 100%

50% acc · 7%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lyoto Machida rounds

even

Randy Couture rounds

Round 1Lyoto Machida edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Lyoto Machida edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 47

Sig Strikes

5 / 23

36%

Sig Str %

26.5%

17 / 49

Total Strikes

5 / 24

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Randy Couture	4 / 20	4 / 21	0 / 2
1	Lyoto Machida	10 / 36	11 / 37	0 / 0
2	Randy Couture	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 1
2	Lyoto Machida	5 / 11	6 / 12	0 / 0

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Randy Couture

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2