Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Phil Davis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1490

Lyoto MachidavsPhil DavisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · Saturday, August 3, 2013Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Phil Davis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLyoto Machida: Well-roundedvsPhil Davis: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Phil Davis wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Phil Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Davis at +295 American odds

+$295 profit

$395 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Phil Davis has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).
Phil Davis has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Lyoto Machida

Red Corner

Phil Davis

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1491

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lyoto MachidaW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15

KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15

KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17

vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18

KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18

latest

Phil Davis

oldest →

SUBvs Wagner Prado · Oct 12

vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13

vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14

vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14

vs Ryan Bader · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lyoto MachidaMetricPhil Davis

2.59

Strikes / min

2.85

1.57

Strikes absorbed / min

1.33

61%

Strike defense

72%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

2.99

75%

Takedown defense

72%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.02evenly matched on net striking+1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lyoto MachidaPhil Davis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lyoto Machida(10 fights)Phil Davis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lyoto MachidaTargetPhil Davis

By target zone

39% acc · 44%

Head

8% acc · 19%

55% acc · 41%

Body

32% acc · 38%

40% acc · 15%

Leg

60% acc · 43%

By position

45% acc · 96%

Distance

20% acc · 71%

33% acc · 4%

Clinch

33% acc · 5%

Ground

45% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lyoto Machida rounds

even

Phil Davis rounds

Round 1Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 2Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Lyoto Machida edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:22

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 61

Sig Strikes

21 / 90

43.7%

Sig Str %

24%

27 / 61

Total Strikes

29 / 98

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 10

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

1:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Phil Davis	8 / 23	12 / 27	1 / 2
1	Lyoto Machida	10 / 20	10 / 20	0 / 0
2	Phil Davis	8 / 40	11 / 43	1 / 4
2	Lyoto Machida	7 / 19	7 / 19	0 / 0
3	Phil Davis	5 / 27	6 / 28	0 / 4
3	Lyoto Machida	10 / 22	10 / 22	0 / 0

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Phil Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11