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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Mauricio Rua won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1447

Lyoto MachidavsMauricio RuaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · Saturday, May 8, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Mauricio Rua won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:35

Style matchupLyoto Machida: Well-roundedvsMauricio Rua: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mauricio Rua wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Mauricio Rua wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Rua at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Lyoto Machida is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Mauricio Rua has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Lyoto Machida has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Lyoto Machida

Red Corner

Mauricio Rua

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1491

Elo

1447

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lyoto MachidaW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15

KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15

KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17

vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18

KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18

latest

Mauricio RuaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lyoto MachidaMetricMauricio Rua

2.59

Strikes / min

3.57

1.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.79

61%

Strike defense

54%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

2.01

75%

Takedown defense

49%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.02evenly matched on net striking+0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lyoto MachidaMauricio Rua

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lyoto Machida(10 fights)Mauricio Rua(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.6|Blue -43.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lyoto MachidaTargetMauricio Rua

By target zone

86% acc · 67%

Head

55% acc · 65%

100% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 6%

0% acc

Leg

71% acc · 29%

By position

71% acc · 56%

Distance

39% acc · 41%

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 24%

100% acc · 11%

Ground

100% acc · 35%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lyoto Machida rounds

even

Mauricio Rua rounds

Round 1Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control0:53

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 11

Sig Strikes

17 / 28

81%

Sig Str %

60%

10 / 12

Total Strikes

24 / 35

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:53

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mauricio Rua	17 / 28	24 / 35	0 / 1	0
1	Lyoto Machida	9 / 11	10 / 12	2 / 2	0

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19