← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

5 Rounds

Luke Rockhold won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1433

Lyoto MachidavsLuke RockholdUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · Saturday, April 18, 2015Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Luke Rockhold won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:31

Style matchupLyoto Machida: Well-roundedvsLuke Rockhold: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Lyoto Machida wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Luke Rockhold wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lyoto Machida at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luke Rockhold enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Lyoto Machida is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Luke Rockhold has lost 80% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Lyoto Machida

Red Corner

Luke Rockhold

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1491

Elo

1433

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lyoto MachidaW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 14

KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15

KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17

vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18

KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18

latest

Luke RockholdL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Bisping · Jun 16

KOvs David Branch · Sep 17

KOvs Yoel Romero · Feb 18

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Jul 19

vs Paulo Costa · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lyoto MachidaMetricLuke Rockhold

2.59

Strikes / min

4.10

1.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.68

61%

Strike defense

53%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

0.70

75%

Takedown defense

65%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.02evenly matched on net striking+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lyoto MachidaLuke Rockhold

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lyoto Machida(10 fights)Luke Rockhold(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.7|Blue -57.7

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -43.0|Blue +43.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lyoto MachidaTargetLuke Rockhold

By target zone

35% acc · 54%

Head

41% acc · 61%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 46%

Leg

83% acc · 22%

By position

48% acc · 92%

Distance

48% acc · 48%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

50% acc · 8%

Ground

55% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lyoto Machida rounds

even

Luke Rockhold rounds

Round 1Luke Rockhold edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:25

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:12Control

Round 2Luke Rockhold edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 27

Sig Strikes

23 / 44

49.5%

Sig Str %

52.5%

19 / 33

Total Strikes

39 / 63

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

3:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luke Rockhold	11 / 24	20 / 36	1 / 1	1
1	Lyoto Machida	8 / 12	14 / 18	0 / 0	0
2	Luke Rockhold	12 / 20	19 / 27	0 / 0	1
2	Lyoto Machida	5 / 15	5 / 15	0 / 0	0

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Luke Rockhold

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights11