Middleweight

5 Rounds

Lyoto Machida won · U-DEC R5

Elo1491

Lyoto MachidavsGegard MousasiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · Saturday, February 15, 2014Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Lyoto Machida won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupLyoto Machida: Well-roundedvsGegard Mousasi: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Gegard Mousasi wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Lyoto Machida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gegard Mousasi at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Lyoto Machida has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Lyoto Machida

Red Corner

Gegard Mousasi

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lyoto MachidaW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15

KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15

KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17

vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18

KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18

latest

Gegard MousasiW5 streak

oldest →

vs Thales Leites · Feb 16

KOvs Thiago Santos · Jul 16

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16

KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16

KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lyoto MachidaMetricGegard Mousasi

2.59

Strikes / min

3.75

1.57

Strikes absorbed / min

1.21

61%

Strike defense

68%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

1.59

75%

Takedown defense

59%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.02Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lyoto MachidaGegard Mousasi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lyoto Machida(10 fights)Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lyoto MachidaTargetGegard Mousasi

By target zone

21% acc · 57%

Head

24% acc · 53%

35% acc · 21%

Body

44% acc · 11%

67% acc · 21%

Leg

76% acc · 36%

By position

26% acc · 89%

Distance

31% acc · 78%

0% acc

Clinch

38% acc · 8%

100% acc · 11%

Ground

63% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lyoto Machida rounds

even

Gegard Mousasi rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gegard Mousasi edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Gegard Mousasi edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:03

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 4Gegard Mousasi edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:02

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:39Control

Round 5Lyoto Machida edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control2:05

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 101

Sig Strikes

36 / 106

28.6%

Sig Str %

34%

35 / 108

Total Strikes

66 / 138

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 3

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:10

Ctrl Time

1:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gegard Mousasi	5 / 13	5 / 13	0 / 0
1	Lyoto Machida	5 / 18	5 / 18	0 / 0
2	Gegard Mousasi	10 / 31	10 / 31	0 / 0
2	Lyoto Machida	6 / 26	6 / 26	0 / 0
3	Gegard Mousasi	9 / 23	11 / 25	0 / 1
3	Lyoto Machida	7 / 29	8 / 30	0 / 1
4	Lyoto Machida	3 / 9	5 / 11	1 / 1
4	Gegard Mousasi	7 / 19	19 / 32	0 / 1
5	Gegard Mousasi	5 / 20	21 / 37	0 / 1
5	Lyoto Machida	7 / 19	11 / 23	0 / 0

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Gegard Mousasi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12