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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Lyoto Machida won · S-DEC R5

Elo1491

Elo1512

Lyoto MachidavsEryk AndersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · Saturday, February 3, 2018Belem, Para, Brazil

Official fight result

Lyoto Machida won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupLyoto Machida: Well-roundedvsEryk Anders: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Eryk Anders wins(60.2%)

Actual result: Lyoto Machida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Eryk Anders at -245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lyoto Machida has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Lyoto Machida

Red Corner

Eryk Anders

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

1491

Elo

1512

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lyoto Machida

oldest →

KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 14

SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15

KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15

KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17

KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18

latest

Eryk Anders

oldest →

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 23

vs Jamie Pickett · Mar 24

KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 24

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Aug 25

vs Brad Tavares · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lyoto MachidaMetricEryk Anders

2.59

Strikes / min

3.44

1.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.03

61%

Strike defense

50%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

1.83

75%

Takedown defense

80%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.02Δ 1.61 — meaningful gap-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lyoto MachidaEryk Anders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lyoto Machida(10 fights)Eryk Anders(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.9|Blue +20.9

Recent Form

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lyoto MachidaTargetEryk Anders

By target zone

32% acc · 29%

Head

29% acc · 56%

74% acc · 37%

Body

100% acc · 41%

88% acc · 34%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

52% acc · 79%

Distance

32% acc · 59%

86% acc · 10%

Clinch

80% acc · 38%

64% acc · 11%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lyoto Machida rounds

even

Eryk Anders rounds

Round 1Lyoto Machida edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control2:18

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Lyoto Machida edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 3Eryk Anders edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 4Eryk Anders edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:25Control

Round 5Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 112

Sig Strikes

32 / 77

55%

Sig Str %

40.2%

66 / 116

Total Strikes

46 / 94

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 11

—

TD %

38.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:18

Ctrl Time

3:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Eryk Anders	2 / 6	10 / 17	0 / 0
1	Lyoto Machida	15 / 26	18 / 29	0 / 0
2	Eryk Anders	6 / 13	6 / 13	0 / 2
2	Lyoto Machida	14 / 22	14 / 22	0 / 0
3	Eryk Anders	9 / 19	11 / 21	1 / 3
3	Lyoto Machida	10 / 19	11 / 20	0 / 0
4	Lyoto Machida	10 / 18	10 / 18	0 / 0
4	Eryk Anders	6 / 18	9 / 21	1 / 5
5	Eryk Anders	9 / 21	10 / 22	1 / 1
5	Lyoto Machida	13 / 27	13 / 27	0 / 0

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Eryk Anders

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19