Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Lyoto Machida won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

Lyoto MachidavsDan HendersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · Saturday, February 23, 2013Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Lyoto Machida won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Dan Henderson wins(73.8%)

Actual result: Lyoto Machida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Henderson at +177 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lyoto Machida has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Lyoto Machida has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Lyoto Machida

Red Corner

Dan Henderson

Blue Corner

-192

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+177

(36%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lyoto MachidaW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15

KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15

KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17

vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18

KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18

latest

Dan Henderson

oldest →

KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Jan 15

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 15

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Nov 15

KOvs Hector Lombard · Jun 16

vs Michael Bisping · Oct 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lyoto MachidaMetricDan Henderson

2.59

Strikes / min

2.44

1.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

61%

Strike defense

51%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

1.52

75%

Takedown defense

57%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.02Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lyoto MachidaDan Henderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lyoto Machida(10 fights)Dan Henderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -259.0|Blue +259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lyoto MachidaTargetDan Henderson

By target zone

47% acc · 63%

Head

16% acc · 25%

64% acc · 33%

Body

56% acc · 25%

25% acc · 4%

Leg

42% acc · 50%

By position

46% acc · 85%

Distance

25% acc · 70%

Clinch

71% acc · 25%

100% acc · 15%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lyoto Machida rounds

even

Dan Henderson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:05

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Lyoto Machida edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dan Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:53Control

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 54

Sig Strikes

20 / 64

51%

Sig Str %

28.3%

28 / 55

Total Strikes

54 / 98

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

1:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dan Henderson	12 / 28	13 / 29	0 / 0
1	Lyoto Machida	10 / 18	10 / 18	1 / 1
2	Dan Henderson	6 / 26	7 / 27	0 / 2
2	Lyoto Machida	11 / 25	11 / 25	0 / 0
3	Dan Henderson	2 / 10	34 / 42	1 / 1
3	Lyoto Machida	6 / 11	7 / 12	0 / 0

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Dan Henderson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11