Middleweight

5 Rounds

Lyoto Machida won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Lyoto MachidavsCB DollawayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · Saturday, December 20, 2014Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Lyoto Machida won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:02

Style matchupLyoto Machida: Well-roundedvsCB Dollaway: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Lyoto Machida wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Lyoto Machida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lyoto Machida at -860 American odds

+$12 profit

$112 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lyoto Machida is a KO finisher (63% of wins). CB Dollaway has lost 71% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Lyoto Machida

Red Corner

CB Dollaway

Blue Corner

-860

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+675

(13%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lyoto MachidaW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15

KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15

KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17

vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18

KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18

latest

CB Dollaway

oldest →

vs Michael Bisping · Apr 15

KOvs Nate Marquardt · Dec 15

vs Ed Herman · Jul 17

vs Hector Lombard · Mar 18

KOvs Khalid Murtazaliev · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lyoto MachidaMetricCB Dollaway

2.59

Strikes / min

2.65

1.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.58

61%

Strike defense

54%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

3.55

75%

Takedown defense

62%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.02evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lyoto MachidaCB Dollaway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lyoto Machida(10 fights)CB Dollaway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lyoto MachidaTargetCB Dollaway

By target zone

59% acc · 83%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 8%

Leg

0% acc

By position

67% acc · 33%

Distance

0% acc

50% acc · 17%

Clinch

67% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lyoto Machida rounds

even

CB Dollaway rounds

Round 1Lyoto Machida edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 19

Sig Strikes

0 / 2

63%

Sig Str %

12 / 19

Total Strikes

0 / 2

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	CB Dollaway	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Lyoto Machida	12 / 19	12 / 19	0 / 0	0

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

CB Dollaway

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14