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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Lyman Good won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1492

Lyman GoodvsChance RencountreUFC Prediction Result

UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Saturday, November 2, 2019New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Lyman Good won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:03

Model Prediction: Chance Rencountre wins(59.7%)

Actual result: Lyman Good wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chance Rencountre at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lyman Good is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Chance Rencountre has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Chance Rencountre threatens submissions; Lyman Good has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Lyman Good has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Lyman Good has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chance Rencountre (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Lyman Good

Red Corner

Chance Rencountre

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1492

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lyman GoodL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andrew Craig · Jul 15

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jul 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Nov 18

SUBvs Demian Maia · Feb 19

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 20

latest

Chance RencountreW2 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 18

SUBvs Kyle Stewart · Jan 19

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lyman GoodMetricChance Rencountre

5.34

Strikes / min

1.10

4.01

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

63%

Strike defense

49%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

1.35

75%

Takedown defense

16%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.33Δ 3.85 — meaningful gap-2.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lyman GoodChance Rencountre

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lyman Good(6 fights)Chance Rencountre(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lyman GoodTargetChance Rencountre

By target zone

46% acc · 76%

Head

11% acc · 26%

60% acc · 9%

Body

54% acc · 61%

91% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

48% acc · 87%

Distance

25% acc · 87%

89% acc · 12%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lyman Good rounds

even

Chance Rencountre rounds

Round 1Lyman Good edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:08

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Lyman Good edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Lyman Good edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 134

Sig Strikes

23 / 83

50.7%

Sig Str %

29.3%

73 / 142

Total Strikes

23 / 85

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chance Rencountre	9 / 24	9 / 26	0 / 1
1	Lyman Good	32 / 57	37 / 65	0 / 0
2	Chance Rencountre	9 / 43	9 / 43	0 / 0
2	Lyman Good	24 / 54	24 / 54	0 / 0
3	Chance Rencountre	5 / 16	5 / 16	0 / 0
3	Lyman Good	12 / 23	12 / 23	0 / 0

Lyman Good

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Chance Rencountre

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4