Middleweight

3 Rounds

Luke Zachrich won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Luke ZachrichvsGuilherme VasconcelosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida · Saturday, July 5, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Luke Zachrich won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLuke Zachrich: Pressure fightervsGuilherme Vasconcelos: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Luke Zachrich wins(66.9%)

Actual result: Luke Zachrich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Zachrich at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luke Zachrich has 80pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Luke Zachrich

Red Corner

Guilherme Vasconcelos

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke ZachrichL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Caio Magalhaes · Apr 14

SUBvs Daniel Kelly · Nov 14

latest

Guilherme VasconcelosNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke ZachrichMetricGuilherme Vasconcelos

4.56

Strikes / min

3.27

4.46

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

62%

Strike defense

70%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

0.00

80%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap-1.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luke ZachrichGuilherme Vasconcelos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Zachrich(3 fights)Guilherme Vasconcelos(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke ZachrichTargetGuilherme Vasconcelos

By target zone

24% acc · 74%

Head

21% acc · 59%

73% acc · 12%

Body

47% acc · 18%

90% acc · 14%

Leg

92% acc · 22%

By position

30% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 98%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Zachrich rounds

even

Guilherme Vasconcelos rounds

Round 1Luke Zachrich edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Luke Zachrich edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:01

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 226

Sig Strikes

49 / 166

28.7%

Sig Str %

28.7%

66 / 226

Total Strikes

49 / 166

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 3

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Guilherme Vasconcelos	10 / 34	10 / 34	0 / 0
1	Luke Zachrich	25 / 81	25 / 81	0 / 0
2	Guilherme Vasconcelos	14 / 55	14 / 55	0 / 2
2	Luke Zachrich	21 / 74	21 / 74	0 / 0
3	Guilherme Vasconcelos	25 / 77	25 / 77	0 / 1
3	Luke Zachrich	20 / 71	20 / 71	1 / 1

Luke Zachrich

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3

Guilherme Vasconcelos

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights1