Middleweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Kelly won · SUB R1

Elo1490

Elo1366

Luke ZachrichvsDaniel KellyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping · Friday, November 7, 2014Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Daniel Kelly won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:27

Style matchupLuke Zachrich: Pressure fightervsDaniel Kelly: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Luke Zachrich wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Daniel Kelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Zachrich at -290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Kelly (53.5%).
Luke Zachrich has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Luke Zachrich

Red Corner

Daniel Kelly

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1490

Elo

1366

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke Zachrich

oldest →

KOvs Caio Magalhaes · Apr 14

vs Guilherme Vasconcelos · Jul 14

latest

Daniel KellyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16

vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17

KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17

vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17

KOvs Tom Breese · May 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke ZachrichMetricDaniel Kelly

4.56

Strikes / min

3.62

4.46

Strikes absorbed / min

4.64

62%

Strike defense

61%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

1.86

80%

Takedown defense

78%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap-1.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luke ZachrichDaniel Kelly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Zachrich(3 fights)Daniel Kelly(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +124.7|Blue -124.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke ZachrichTargetDaniel Kelly

By target zone

49% acc · 87%

Head

45% acc · 76%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

47% acc · 87%

Distance

48% acc · 76%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

71% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Zachrich rounds

even

Daniel Kelly rounds

Round 1Daniel Kelly edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:50Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 46

Sig Strikes

25 / 48

50%

Sig Str %

52%

24 / 47

Total Strikes

33 / 59

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Kelly	25 / 48	33 / 59	1 / 2	1
1	Luke Zachrich	23 / 46	24 / 47	0 / 2	0

Luke Zachrich

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3

Daniel Kelly

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10