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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Luke Sanders won · U-DEC R3
Elo1400
Elo1365
Patrick Williams

Luke SandersvsPatrick WilliamsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Saturday, April 14, 2018Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Luke Sanders won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLuke Sanders: Pressure fightervsPatrick Williams: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Luke Sanders wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Luke Sanders wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Sanders at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Patrick Williams threatens submissions; Luke Sanders has lost 60% of fights by sub.
  • Patrick Williams has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Luke Sanders (53.5%).
  • Patrick Williams has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Luke Sanders
Red Corner
VS
Patrick Williams
Blue Corner
-430
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+345
(22%)
1400
Elo
1365
40
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke SandersL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Andre Soukhamthath · Dec 17
L
SUBvs Rani Yahya · Aug 18
W
KOvs Renan Barao · Feb 19
L
SUBvs Nate Maness · Nov 20
L
vs Felipe Colares · May 21
latest
Patrick Williams
oldest →
L
KOvs Chris Beal · Apr 14
W
SUBvs Alejandro Perez · Jun 15
L
KOvs Tom Duquesnoy · Apr 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke SandersMetricPatrick Williams
6.61
Strikes / min
4.12
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
4.12
50%
Strike defense
52%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
2.71
72%
Takedown defense
100%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.24Δ 2.24 — meaningful gap0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1485Strikes47.7 vs 17.7Takedowns0.3 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.33Form-0.8 vs -0.7
Luke SandersPatrick Williams

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Luke Sanders(8 fights)Patrick Williams(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +34.9|Blue -34.9
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -238.0|Blue +238.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke SandersTargetPatrick Williams

By target zone

44
36% acc · 75%
Head
15
27% acc · 25%
13
81% acc · 22%
Body
15
75% acc · 25%
2
67% acc · 3%
Leg
31
94% acc · 51%

By position

44
37% acc · 75%
Distance
53
56% acc · 87%
13
68% acc · 22%
Clinch
8
53% acc · 13%
2
100% acc · 3%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Luke Sanders rounds
0
even
2
Patrick Williams rounds
Round 1Luke Sanders edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:42
Knockdowns1
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:44Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Patrick Williams edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:31
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:11Control
Round 3Patrick Williams edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:05
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
59 / 140
Sig Strikes
61 / 109
42.7%
Sig Str %
57%
62 / 143
Total Strikes
68 / 117
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 5
—
TD %
25%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:18
Ctrl Time
0:55

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Patrick Williams15 / 2321 / 290 / 30
1Luke Sanders22 / 4224 / 440 / 00
2Patrick Williams24 / 4525 / 461 / 20
2Luke Sanders20 / 5921 / 600 / 00
3Patrick Williams22 / 4122 / 420 / 00
3Luke Sanders17 / 3917 / 390 / 00

Luke Sanders

StanceSouthpaw
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights8

Patrick Williams

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4