Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Nate Maness won · SUB

Elo1400

Elo1506

Luke SandersvsNate ManessUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · Saturday, November 28, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nate Maness won

SUB

Style matchupLuke Sanders: Pressure fightervsNate Maness: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Nate Maness wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Nate Maness wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Maness at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Luke Sanders (53.5%).
Nate Maness has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Luke Sanders

Red Corner

Nate Maness

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1400

Elo

1506

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'10"

170.18 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke Sanders

oldest →

KOvs Andre Soukhamthath · Dec 17

vs Patrick Williams · Apr 18

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Aug 18

KOvs Renan Barao · Feb 19

vs Felipe Colares · May 21

latest

Nate ManessW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tony Gravely · Sep 21

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jun 22

SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 22

KOvs Mateus Mendonca · Oct 23

vs Jimmy Flick · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke SandersMetricNate Maness

6.61

Strikes / min

3.14

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

50%

Strike defense

42%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.68

72%

Takedown defense

80%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.24Δ 2.98 — meaningful gap-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luke SandersNate Maness

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Sanders(8 fights)Nate Maness(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -106.1|Blue +106.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +531.0|Blue -531.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke SandersTargetNate Maness

By target zone

44% acc · 73%

Head

44% acc · 82%

78% acc · 13%

Body

67% acc · 12%

62% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

46% acc · 85%

Distance

45% acc · 85%

80% acc · 15%

Clinch

60% acc · 9%

Ground

67% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Sanders rounds

even

Nate Maness rounds

Round 1Luke Sanders edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:22

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Nate Maness edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:18

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:18Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 112

Sig Strikes

33 / 70

49%

Sig Str %

46.5%

63 / 120

Total Strikes

38 / 75

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

0:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nate Maness	13 / 30	15 / 32	0 / 1	0
1	Luke Sanders	30 / 61	37 / 68	0 / 0	0
2	Nate Maness	20 / 40	23 / 43	1 / 1	1
2	Luke Sanders	25 / 51	26 / 52	0 / 1	0

Luke Sanders

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8

Nate Maness

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7