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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Felipe Colares won · U-DEC

Elo1400

Elo1425

Luke SandersvsFelipe ColaresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · Saturday, May 1, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Felipe Colares won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Felipe Colares wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Felipe Colares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Felipe Colares at +107 American odds

+$107 profit

$207 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felipe Colares enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Luke Sanders has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Luke Sanders has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Luke Sanders (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Luke Sanders

Red Corner

Felipe Colares

Blue Corner

-127

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+107

(48%)

1400

Elo

1425

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke Sanders

oldest →

KOvs Andre Soukhamthath · Dec 17

vs Patrick Williams · Apr 18

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Aug 18

KOvs Renan Barao · Feb 19

SUBvs Nate Maness · Nov 20

latest

Felipe ColaresL3 streak

oldest →

vs Geraldo de Freitas · Feb 19

vs Domingo Pilarte · Jul 19

vs Montel Jackson · Jan 20

vs Chris Gutierrez · Oct 21

KOvs Chase Hooper · May 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke SandersMetricFelipe Colares

6.61

Strikes / min

2.17

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

4.65

50%

Strike defense

36%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

1.88

72%

Takedown defense

43%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.24Δ 4.72 — meaningful gap-2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luke SandersFelipe Colares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Sanders(8 fights)Felipe Colares(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.7|Blue +25.7

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -308.0|Blue +308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke SandersTargetFelipe Colares

By target zone

51% acc · 79%

Head

50% acc · 65%

80% acc · 14%

Body

90% acc · 33%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

52% acc · 82%

Distance

59% acc · 90%

86% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

90% acc · 8%

Ground

56% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Sanders rounds

even

Felipe Colares rounds

Round 1Luke Sanders edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control1:39

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Luke Sanders edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control0:42

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control0:34

37Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:35Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

118 / 211

Sig Strikes

78 / 131

57.7%

Sig Str %

58.7%

131 / 225

Total Strikes

104 / 165

2 / 5

TDs

2 / 10

41.5%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:55

Ctrl Time

2:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Felipe Colares	16 / 27	20 / 31	0 / 2
1	Luke Sanders	48 / 77	59 / 88	0 / 0
2	Felipe Colares	25 / 44	42 / 68	1 / 4
2	Luke Sanders	33 / 48	34 / 49	1 / 2
3	Felipe Colares	37 / 60	42 / 66	1 / 4
3	Luke Sanders	37 / 86	38 / 88	1 / 3

Luke Sanders

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8

Felipe Colares

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6