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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Luke Rockhold won · SUB R1

Elo1433

Elo1371

Luke RockholdvsTim BoetschUFC Prediction Result

UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · Saturday, April 26, 2014Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Official fight result

Luke Rockhold won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:08

Style matchupLuke Rockhold: Well-roundedvsTim Boetsch: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Tim Boetsch wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Luke Rockhold wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Boetsch at +800 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luke Rockhold enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tim Boetsch is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Luke Rockhold has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Luke Rockhold threatens submissions; Tim Boetsch has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Luke Rockhold (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Luke Rockhold

Red Corner

Tim Boetsch

Blue Corner

-1000

(91%)

Vegas Odds

+800

(11%)

1433

Elo

1371

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke RockholdL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Bisping · Jun 16

KOvs David Branch · Sep 17

KOvs Yoel Romero · Feb 18

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Jul 19

vs Paulo Costa · Aug 22

latest

Tim BoetschL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16

SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18

vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke RockholdMetricTim Boetsch

4.10

Strikes / min

2.93

2.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

53%

Strike defense

57%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

1.45

65%

Takedown defense

59%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luke RockholdTim Boetsch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Rockhold(10 fights)Tim Boetsch(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +62.1|Blue -62.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -88.0|Blue +88.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke RockholdTargetTim Boetsch

By target zone

Head

100% acc · 100%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

100% acc · 25%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 75%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Rockhold rounds

even

Tim Boetsch rounds

Round 1Luke Rockhold edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:35

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 4

Sig Strikes

1 / 2

100%

Sig Str %

50%

9 / 9

Total Strikes

1 / 2

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:35

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Boetsch	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 1	0
1	Luke Rockhold	4 / 4	9 / 9	0 / 0	2

Luke Rockhold

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights11

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights20