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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Michael Bisping won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1433

Elo1363

Luke RockholdvsMichael BispingUFC Prediction Result

UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Saturday, June 4, 2016Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Michael Bisping won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:36

Style matchupLuke Rockhold: Well-roundedvsMichael Bisping: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Luke Rockhold wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Michael Bisping wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Rockhold at -750 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luke Rockhold enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Luke Rockhold threatens submissions; Michael Bisping has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Michael Bisping has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Luke Rockhold (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Luke Rockhold

Red Corner

Michael Bisping

Blue Corner

-750

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+525

(16%)

1433

Elo

1363

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke RockholdL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 15

KOvs David Branch · Sep 17

KOvs Yoel Romero · Feb 18

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Jul 19

vs Paulo Costa · Aug 22

latest

Michael BispingL2 streak

oldest →

vs Thales Leites · Jul 15

vs Anderson Silva · Feb 16

vs Dan Henderson · Oct 16

SUBvs Georges St-Pierre · Nov 17

KOvs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke RockholdMetricMichael Bisping

4.10

Strikes / min

4.33

2.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.71

53%

Strike defense

65%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

1.05

65%

Takedown defense

63%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42evenly matched on net striking+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luke RockholdMichael Bisping

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Rockhold(10 fights)Michael Bisping(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +70.6|Blue -70.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke RockholdTargetMichael Bisping

By target zone

25% acc · 35%

Head

33% acc · 67%

89% acc · 47%

Body

100% acc · 14%

75% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

44% acc · 94%

Distance

37% acc · 81%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Rockhold rounds

even

Michael Bisping rounds

Round 1Michael Bisping edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 37

Sig Strikes

21 / 50

45%

Sig Str %

42%

17 / 37

Total Strikes

21 / 50

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Bisping	21 / 50	21 / 50	0 / 0	0
1	Luke Rockhold	17 / 37	17 / 37	0 / 0	0

Luke Rockhold

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights11

Michael Bisping

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights18