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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Luke Rockhold won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1433

Elo1372

Luke RockholdvsDavid BranchUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · Saturday, September 16, 2017Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Luke Rockhold won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:05

Style matchupLuke Rockhold: Well-roundedvsDavid Branch: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Luke Rockhold wins(80.3%)

Actual result: Luke Rockhold wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Rockhold at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luke Rockhold enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Luke Rockhold is a KO finisher (50% of wins). David Branch has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Luke Rockhold threatens submissions; David Branch has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Luke Rockhold has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Luke Rockhold (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Luke Rockhold

Red Corner

David Branch

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1433

Elo

1372

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke RockholdL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 15

KOvs Michael Bisping · Jun 16

KOvs Yoel Romero · Feb 18

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Jul 19

vs Paulo Costa · Aug 22

latest

David BranchL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Mar 11

vs Krzysztof Jotko · May 17

KOvs Thiago Santos · Apr 18

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Nov 18

SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke RockholdMetricDavid Branch

4.10

Strikes / min

1.66

2.68

Strikes absorbed / min

1.91

53%

Strike defense

56%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

2.55

65%

Takedown defense

43%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap-0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luke RockholdDavid Branch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Rockhold(10 fights)David Branch(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +61.6|Blue -61.6

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +343.0|Blue -343.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke RockholdTargetDavid Branch

By target zone

66% acc · 69%

Head

31% acc · 52%

62% acc · 14%

Body

83% acc · 40%

91% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

66% acc · 36%

Distance

37% acc · 68%

43% acc · 5%

Clinch

80% acc · 32%

74% acc · 59%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Rockhold rounds

even

David Branch rounds

Round 1David Branch edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:19

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 2Luke Rockhold edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns1

Control2:22

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 85

Sig Strikes

25 / 56

66%

Sig Str %

41%

68 / 97

Total Strikes

51 / 82

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 2

41.5%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:41

Ctrl Time

2:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	David Branch	19 / 36	36 / 53	1 / 2
1	Luke Rockhold	15 / 24	19 / 30	1 / 2
2	David Branch	6 / 20	15 / 29	0 / 0
2	Luke Rockhold	43 / 61	49 / 67	1 / 3

Luke Rockhold

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights11

David Branch

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9