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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Luke Riley won · U-DEC R3

Elo1569

Elo1465

Luke RileyvsMichael Aswell Jr.UFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Saturday, March 21, 2026London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Luke Riley won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLuke Riley: StrikervsMichael Aswell Jr.: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Luke Riley wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Luke Riley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Riley at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luke Riley has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Michael Aswell Jr. has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Luke Riley

Red Corner

Michael Aswell Jr.

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1569

Elo

1465

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke RileyW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bogdan Grad · Nov 25

KOvs Kai Kamaka III · Jul 26

latest

Michael Aswell Jr.

oldest →

vs Bolaji Oki · May 25

KOvs Lucas Almeida · Oct 25

DECvs Gaston Bolanos · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke RileyMetricMichael Aswell Jr.

5.56

Strikes / min

7.79

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

7.43

64%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.32

37%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.24Δ 1.88 — meaningful gap+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luke RileyMichael Aswell Jr.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Riley(3 fights)Michael Aswell Jr.(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +103.3|Blue -103.3

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke RileyTargetMichael Aswell Jr.

By target zone

49% acc · 65%

Head

30% acc · 79%

86% acc · 31%

Body

62% acc · 21%

57% acc · 4%

Leg

0% acc

By position

54% acc · 90%

Distance

34% acc · 95%

91% acc · 10%

Clinch

27% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Riley rounds

even

Michael Aswell Jr. rounds

Round 1Luke Riley edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 2Luke Riley edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 3Luke Riley edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

100 / 177

Sig Strikes

61 / 180

56.7%

Sig Str %

32.3%

113 / 192

Total Strikes

107 / 233

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Aswell Jr.	20 / 59	54 / 95	0 / 0
1	Luke Riley	33 / 56	45 / 68	0 / 0
2	Michael Aswell Jr.	30 / 81	36 / 87	0 / 0
2	Luke Riley	35 / 70	35 / 70	0 / 0
3	Michael Aswell Jr.	11 / 40	17 / 51	1 / 1
3	Luke Riley	32 / 51	33 / 54	0 / 0

Luke Riley

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3

Michael Aswell Jr.

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4