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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Dhiego Lima won · S-DEC R3
Elo1492
Elo1403

Luke JumeauvsDhiego LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · Saturday, October 5, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Dhiego Lima won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Dhiego Lima wins(57.3%)

Actual result: Dhiego Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dhiego Lima at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Luke Jumeau
Red Corner
VS
Dhiego Lima
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
1492
Elo
1403
38
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'2"
182.88 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke Jumeau
oldest →
W
vs Dominique Steele · Jun 17
L
vs Shinsho Anzai · Sep 17
W
vs Daichi Abe · Feb 18
latest
Dhiego LimaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Yushin Okami · Apr 18
W
KOvs Chad Laprise · Dec 18
W
vs Court McGee · Apr 19
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Feb 21
L
KOvs Matt Brown · Jun 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke JumeauMetricDhiego Lima
2.93
Strikes / min
3.12
3.17
Strikes absorbed / min
3.88
58%
Strike defense
58%
0.25
TDs / 15 min
1.26
86%
Takedown defense
73%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.24evenly matched on net striking-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1517 vs 1481Strikes2.9 vs 2.8Takedowns0.3 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.80Form0.4 vs 0.5
Luke JumeauDhiego Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Luke Jumeau(4 fights)Dhiego Lima(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +89.2|Blue -89.2
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +441.0|Blue -441.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke JumeauTargetDhiego Lima

By target zone

17
20% acc · 71%
Head
15
21% acc · 47%
1
25% acc · 4%
Body
2
17% acc · 6%
6
100% acc · 25%
Leg
15
71% acc · 47%

By position

24
25% acc · 100%
Distance
30
30% acc · 94%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
33% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Luke Jumeau rounds
0
even
3
Dhiego Lima rounds
Round 1Dhiego Lima edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Dhiego Lima edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:56Control
Round 3Dhiego Lima edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
24 / 95
Sig Strikes
32 / 105
25%
Sig Str %
30%
24 / 95
Total Strikes
49 / 124
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 6
—
TD %
33%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
2:39

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dhiego Lima9 / 379 / 370 / 00
1Luke Jumeau7 / 287 / 280 / 00
2Dhiego Lima9 / 3225 / 502 / 30
2Luke Jumeau7 / 287 / 280 / 00
3Dhiego Lima14 / 3615 / 370 / 30
3Luke Jumeau10 / 3910 / 390 / 00

Luke Jumeau

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4

Dhiego Lima

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11