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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Luke Jumeau won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1366

Luke JumeauvsDaichi AbeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Saturday, February 10, 2018Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Luke Jumeau won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Daichi Abe wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Luke Jumeau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daichi Abe at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luke Jumeau has 86pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Luke Jumeau

Red Corner

Daichi Abe

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1492

Elo

1366

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke JumeauL2 streak

oldest →

vs Dominique Steele · Jun 17

vs Shinsho Anzai · Sep 17

vs Dhiego Lima · Oct 19

latest

Daichi Abe

oldest →

vs Hyun Gyu Lim · Sep 17

DECvs Li Jingliang · Jun 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke JumeauMetricDaichi Abe

2.93

Strikes / min

3.80

3.17

Strikes absorbed / min

4.49

58%

Strike defense

56%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

0.33

86%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.24evenly matched on net striking-0.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luke JumeauDaichi Abe

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Jumeau(4 fights)Daichi Abe(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +125.8|Blue -125.8

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke JumeauTargetDaichi Abe

By target zone

38% acc · 56%

Head

30% acc · 68%

55% acc · 17%

Body

50% acc · 11%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

49% acc · 92%

Distance

32% acc · 75%

29% acc · 3%

Clinch

57% acc · 13%

60% acc · 5%

Ground

67% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Jumeau rounds

even

Daichi Abe rounds

Round 1Daichi Abe edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Luke Jumeau edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:10

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Luke Jumeau edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:03

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 130

Sig Strikes

63 / 171

47%

Sig Str %

34%

64 / 131

Total Strikes

65 / 176

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daichi Abe	36 / 82	38 / 87	0 / 0
1	Luke Jumeau	12 / 37	12 / 37	0 / 0
2	Daichi Abe	16 / 52	16 / 52	0 / 1
2	Luke Jumeau	25 / 48	26 / 49	1 / 1
3	Daichi Abe	11 / 37	11 / 37	0 / 0
3	Luke Jumeau	26 / 45	26 / 45	0 / 0

Luke Jumeau

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Daichi Abe

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3