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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Rodolfo Bellato won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1479

Elo1515

Luke FernandezvsRodolfo BellatoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · Saturday, March 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rodolfo Bellato won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:42

Style matchupLuke Fernandez: Pressure fightervsRodolfo Bellato: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Luke Fernandez wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Rodolfo Bellato wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Fernandez at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rodolfo Bellato has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rodolfo Bellato has 94pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Luke Fernandez

Red Corner

Rodolfo Bellato

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+184

(35%)

1479

Elo

1515

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke FernandezNo prior UFC fights on record.

Rodolfo BellatoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Dec 23

vs Jimmy Crute · Feb 25

vs Paul Craig · Jun 25

vs Navajo Stirling · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke FernandezMetricRodolfo Bellato

8.14

Strikes / min

5.37

10.17

Strikes absorbed / min

5.86

36%

Strike defense

46%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.38

Takedown defense

94%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.03Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luke FernandezRodolfo Bellato

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Fernandez(1 fights)Rodolfo Bellato(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.6|Blue +36.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke FernandezTargetRodolfo Bellato

By target zone

43% acc · 75%

Head

62% acc · 80%

75% acc · 19%

Body

80% acc · 13%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

35% acc · 56%

Distance

50% acc · 30%

100% acc · 44%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

74% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Fernandez rounds

even

Rodolfo Bellato rounds

Round 1Rodolfo Bellato edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:22

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 33

Sig Strikes

30 / 46

48%

Sig Str %

65%

26 / 43

Total Strikes

32 / 48

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rodolfo Bellato	30 / 46	32 / 48	0 / 0	0
1	Luke Fernandez	16 / 33	26 / 43	0 / 0	0

Luke Fernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights1

Rodolfo Bellato

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5