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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Sean Strickland won · S-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1530

Luke BarnattvsSean StricklandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Sean Strickland won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLuke Barnatt: Pressure fightervsSean Strickland: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Luke Barnatt wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Sean Strickland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Barnatt at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Luke Barnatt

Red Corner

Sean Strickland

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1355

Elo

1530

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke BarnattL2 streak

oldest →

vs Collin Hart · Apr 13

SUBvs Andrew Craig · Oct 13

KOvs Mats Nilsson · Mar 14

vs Roger Narvaez · Nov 14

vs Mark Munoz · May 15

latest

Sean StricklandW2 streak

oldest →

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Jan 24

vs Paulo Costa · Jun 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Feb 25

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 26

DECvs Khamzat Chimaev · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke BarnattMetricSean Strickland

4.43

Strikes / min

5.98

3.87

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

59%

Strike defense

60%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

0.66

63%

Takedown defense

68%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56evenly matched on net striking+1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luke BarnattSean Strickland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Barnatt(6 fights)Sean Strickland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -175.6|Blue +175.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +4.0|Blue -4.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke BarnattTargetSean Strickland

By target zone

17% acc · 52%

Head

26% acc · 73%

42% acc · 32%

Body

20% acc · 2%

33% acc · 16%

Leg

57% acc · 25%

By position

24% acc · 98%

Distance

29% acc · 94%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

0% acc

Ground

25% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Barnatt rounds

even

Sean Strickland rounds

Round 1Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:05

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:23

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 187

Sig Strikes

48 / 161

23%

Sig Str %

29.3%

44 / 187

Total Strikes

49 / 166

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean Strickland	19 / 60	19 / 60	0 / 0
1	Luke Barnatt	13 / 64	13 / 64	0 / 0
2	Sean Strickland	15 / 46	16 / 49	1 / 2
2	Luke Barnatt	21 / 65	21 / 65	0 / 0
3	Sean Strickland	14 / 55	14 / 57	0 / 1
3	Luke Barnatt	10 / 58	10 / 58	0 / 1

Luke Barnatt

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6

Sean Strickland

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25