Middleweight

3 Rounds

Roger Narvaez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1490

Luke BarnattvsRoger NarvaezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · Saturday, November 22, 2014Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Roger Narvaez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Luke Barnatt wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Roger Narvaez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Barnatt at -420 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Roger Narvaez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Luke Barnatt

Red Corner

Roger Narvaez

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+375

(21%)

1355

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'6"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke BarnattL2 streak

oldest →

vs Collin Hart · Apr 13

SUBvs Andrew Craig · Oct 13

KOvs Mats Nilsson · Mar 14

vs Sean Strickland · May 14

vs Mark Munoz · May 15

latest

Roger NarvaezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · Jun 14

KOvs Elias Theodorou · Mar 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke BarnattMetricRoger Narvaez

4.43

Strikes / min

2.12

3.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

59%

Strike defense

64%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

0.00

63%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap-1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luke BarnattRoger Narvaez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Barnatt(6 fights)Roger Narvaez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.7|Blue +135.7

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +4.0|Blue -4.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke BarnattTargetRoger Narvaez

By target zone

16% acc · 44%

Head

36% acc · 67%

39% acc · 26%

Body

77% acc · 21%

83% acc · 29%

Leg

67% acc · 13%

By position

25% acc · 91%

Distance

40% acc · 75%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

56% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Barnatt rounds

even

Roger Narvaez rounds

Round 1Roger Narvaez edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Luke Barnatt edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:09

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Roger Narvaez edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:42Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 130

Sig Strikes

48 / 110

26%

Sig Str %

44.3%

41 / 137

Total Strikes

62 / 127

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

3:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Roger Narvaez	15 / 39	15 / 39	0 / 1	0
1	Luke Barnatt	11 / 50	11 / 50	0 / 1	0
2	Roger Narvaez	16 / 41	16 / 41	0 / 1	0
2	Luke Barnatt	19 / 66	19 / 66	0 / 0	0
3	Roger Narvaez	17 / 30	31 / 47	0 / 0	2
3	Luke Barnatt	4 / 14	11 / 21	0 / 0	0

Luke Barnatt

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6

Roger Narvaez

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach—

Fights3