Middleweight

3 Rounds

Luke Barnatt won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1355

Elo1354

Luke BarnattvsMats NilssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · Saturday, March 8, 2014London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Luke Barnatt won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:24

Style matchupLuke Barnatt: Pressure fightervsMats Nilsson: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Luke Barnatt wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Luke Barnatt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Barnatt at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luke Barnatt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Luke Barnatt has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Luke Barnatt

Red Corner

Mats Nilsson

Blue Corner

-430

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+345

(22%)

1355

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke BarnattL3 streak

oldest →

vs Collin Hart · Apr 13

SUBvs Andrew Craig · Oct 13

vs Sean Strickland · May 14

vs Roger Narvaez · Nov 14

vs Mark Munoz · May 15

latest

Mats Nilsson

oldest →

vs Omari Akhmedov · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke BarnattMetricMats Nilsson

4.43

Strikes / min

2.99

3.87

Strikes absorbed / min

5.62

59%

Strike defense

63%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

3.87

63%

Takedown defense

44%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

2.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56Δ 3.19 — meaningful gap-2.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luke BarnattMats Nilsson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Barnatt(6 fights)Mats Nilsson(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -46.4|Blue +46.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke BarnattTargetMats Nilsson

By target zone

32% acc · 71%

Head

34% acc · 60%

71% acc · 22%

Body

80% acc · 16%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

86% acc · 24%

By position

36% acc · 91%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Barnatt rounds

even

Mats Nilsson rounds

Round 1Luke Barnatt edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:01

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 117

Sig Strikes

25 / 56

38%

Sig Str %

44%

45 / 117

Total Strikes

32 / 64

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mats Nilsson	25 / 56	32 / 64	0 / 0	0
1	Luke Barnatt	45 / 117	45 / 117	0 / 0	0

Luke Barnatt

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6

Mats Nilsson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights2