Middleweight

3 Rounds

Luke Barnatt won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1490

Luke BarnattvsCollin HartUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale · Saturday, April 13, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Luke Barnatt won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLuke Barnatt: Pressure fightervsCollin Hart: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Luke Barnatt wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Luke Barnatt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Barnatt at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luke Barnatt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Luke Barnatt

Red Corner

Collin Hart

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1355

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke BarnattL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Andrew Craig · Oct 13

KOvs Mats Nilsson · Mar 14

vs Sean Strickland · May 14

vs Roger Narvaez · Nov 14

vs Mark Munoz · May 15

latest

Collin HartNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke BarnattMetricCollin Hart

4.43

Strikes / min

6.33

3.87

Strikes absorbed / min

7.53

59%

Strike defense

51%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

2.00

63%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap-1.20

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Barnatt(6 fights)Collin Hart(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.5|Blue +135.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke BarnattTargetCollin Hart

By target zone

46% acc · 82%

Head

41% acc · 71%

68% acc · 12%

Body

61% acc · 12%

70% acc · 6%

Leg

55% acc · 18%

By position

46% acc · 83%

Distance

42% acc · 79%

74% acc · 15%

Clinch

57% acc · 21%

67% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Barnatt rounds

even

Collin Hart rounds

Round 1Collin Hart edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control0:18

40Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:16Control

Round 2Luke Barnatt edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:16

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:06

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Fight Stats

Totals

113 / 232

Sig Strikes

95 / 212

48%

Sig Str %

44.3%

119 / 238

Total Strikes

104 / 223

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 12

50%

TD %

13.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

3:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Collin Hart	40 / 83	43 / 86	1 / 5	0
1	Luke Barnatt	33 / 77	38 / 82	1 / 1	0
2	Collin Hart	25 / 64	29 / 70	0 / 2	0
2	Luke Barnatt	46 / 86	46 / 86	0 / 0	1
3	Collin Hart	30 / 65	32 / 67	1 / 5	0
3	Luke Barnatt	34 / 69	35 / 70	0 / 1	0

Luke Barnatt

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6

Collin Hart

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights1