Middleweight

3 Rounds

Luke Barnatt won · SUB R2

Elo1355

Luke BarnattvsAndrew CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · Saturday, October 26, 2013Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Luke Barnatt won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:12

Model Prediction: Luke Barnatt wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Luke Barnatt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Barnatt at +185 American odds

+$185 profit

$285 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luke Barnatt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Luke Barnatt

Red Corner

Andrew Craig

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1355

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke BarnattL3 streak

oldest →

vs Collin Hart · Apr 13

KOvs Mats Nilsson · Mar 14

vs Sean Strickland · May 14

vs Roger Narvaez · Nov 14

vs Mark Munoz · May 15

latest

Andrew CraigL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Jul 12

vs Ronny Markes · Jan 13

vs Chris Leben · Jul 13

vs Cezar Ferreira · Jun 14

KOvs Lyman Good · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke BarnattMetricAndrew Craig

4.43

Strikes / min

2.39

3.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

59%

Strike defense

50%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

0.53

63%

Takedown defense

72%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap-0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luke BarnattAndrew Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Barnatt(6 fights)Andrew Craig(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke BarnattTargetAndrew Craig

By target zone

32% acc · 77%

Head

30% acc · 62%

75% acc · 15%

Body

67% acc · 8%

43% acc · 8%

Leg

80% acc · 31%

By position

29% acc · 69%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

80% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Barnatt rounds

even

Andrew Craig rounds

Round 1Luke Barnatt edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:18

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Luke Barnatt edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:27

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 108

Sig Strikes

26 / 67

38%

Sig Str %

38%

42 / 111

Total Strikes

26 / 67

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andrew Craig	19 / 49	19 / 49	0 / 0	0
1	Luke Barnatt	28 / 82	29 / 83	0 / 0	0
2	Andrew Craig	7 / 18	7 / 18	0 / 0	0
2	Luke Barnatt	11 / 26	13 / 28	1 / 1	1

Luke Barnatt

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6

Andrew Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights7