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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Marc Diakiese won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1358
Lukasz Sajewski
Elo1500

Lukasz SajewskivsMarc DiakieseUFC Prediction Result

UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · Saturday, October 8, 2016Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Marc Diakiese won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:40

Model Prediction: Lukasz Sajewski wins(52.9%)

Actual result: Marc Diakiese wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lukasz Sajewski at +245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Lukasz Sajewski
Red Corner
VS
Marc Diakiese
Blue Corner
+245
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-290
(74%)
1358
Elo
1500
35
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lukasz SajewskiL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Nick Hein · Jun 15
L
SUBvs Gilbert Burns · Jul 16
latest
Marc Diakiese
oldest →
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Mar 22
W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 22
L
vs Michael Johnson · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 23
W
vs Kaue Fernandes · Nov 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lukasz SajewskiMetricMarc Diakiese
2.06
Strikes / min
2.54
3.88
Strikes absorbed / min
2.64
57%
Strike defense
52%
1.01
TDs / 15 min
3.29
66%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.82Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1466 vs 1500Strikes20.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Lukasz SajewskiMarc Diakiese

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Lukasz Sajewski(3 fights)Marc Diakiese(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -141.5|Blue +141.5
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.1|Blue +49.1
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lukasz SajewskiTargetMarc Diakiese

By target zone

8
21% acc · 38%
Head
36
36% acc · 75%
12
92% acc · 57%
Body
5
56% acc · 10%
1
50% acc · 5%
Leg
7
88% acc · 15%

By position

13
31% acc · 62%
Distance
34
40% acc · 71%
1
25% acc · 5%
Clinch
13
45% acc · 27%
7
88% acc · 33%
Ground
1
100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Lukasz Sajewski rounds
0
even
1
Marc Diakiese rounds
Round 1Lukasz Sajewski edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns2
Control3:25
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 2Marc Diakiese edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:11
42Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
21 / 54
Sig Strikes
48 / 116
45%
Sig Str %
35.5%
25 / 59
Total Strikes
61 / 129
2 / 6
TDs
1 / 1
33%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:36
Ctrl Time
0:07

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Marc Diakiese6 / 2219 / 351 / 10
1Lukasz Sajewski9 / 1513 / 202 / 60
2Marc Diakiese42 / 9442 / 940 / 00
2Lukasz Sajewski12 / 3912 / 390 / 00

Lukasz Sajewski

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3

Marc Diakiese

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14