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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Tom Breese won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1355
Elo1493

Luiz DutravsTom BreeseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves · Saturday, May 30, 2015Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Tom Breese won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:58

Style matchupLuiz Dutra: StrikervsTom Breese: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Luiz Dutra wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Tom Breese wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luiz Dutra at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tom Breese is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Luiz Dutra has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Tom Breese has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Luiz Dutra has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Tom Breese (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Luiz Dutra
Red Corner
VS
Tom Breese
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
1355
Elo
1493
44
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'3"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luiz Dutra
oldest →
L
vs Kiichi Kunimoto · Jan 14
latest
Tom Breese
oldest →
L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 16
W
KOvs Daniel Kelly · May 18
L
KOvs Brendan Allen · Feb 20
W
KOvs KB Bhullar · Oct 20
L
SUBvs Omari Akhmedov · Jan 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luiz DutraMetricTom Breese
3.92
Strikes / min
3.34
4.80
Strikes absorbed / min
2.81
41%
Strike defense
60%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
70%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.88Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap+0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1482 vs 1500Strikes10.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Luiz DutraTom Breese

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Luiz Dutra(2 fights)Tom Breese(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.2|Blue +138.2
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luiz DutraTargetTom Breese

By target zone

7
28% acc · 33%
Head
11
48% acc · 42%
9
69% acc · 43%
Body
11
73% acc · 42%
5
100% acc · 24%
Leg
4
100% acc · 15%

By position

10
38% acc · 48%
Distance
8
50% acc · 31%
11
65% acc · 52%
Clinch
11
73% acc · 42%
0
Ground
7
64% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Luiz Dutra rounds
0
even
1
Tom Breese rounds
Round 1Tom Breese edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:45
Knockdowns0
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:57Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
21 / 43
Sig Strikes
26 / 42
48%
Sig Str %
61%
28 / 52
Total Strikes
26 / 42
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 2
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:45
Ctrl Time
0:57

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tom Breese26 / 4226 / 420 / 20
1Luiz Dutra21 / 4328 / 520 / 20

Luiz Dutra

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights2

Tom Breese

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8