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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Luiz Cane won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1352
Luiz Cane
Elo1351
Eliot Marshall

Luiz CanevsEliot MarshallUFC Prediction Result

UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · Saturday, March 19, 2011Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Luiz Cane won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:15

Model Prediction: Luiz Cane wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Luiz Cane wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luiz Cane at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Luiz Cane enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Luiz Cane has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Luiz Cane (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Luiz Cane
Red Corner
VS
Eliot Marshall
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
1352
Elo
1351
45
Age
46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luiz CaneL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Cyrille Diabate · May 10
L
KOvs Stanislav Nedkov · Aug 11
L
vs Chris Camozzi · Oct 12
latest
Eliot MarshallL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Vladimir Matyushenko · Mar 10
L
vs Brandon Vera · Oct 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luiz CaneMetricEliot Marshall
4.79
Strikes / min
1.93
5.00
Strikes absorbed / min
2.39
60%
Strike defense
67%
0.56
TDs / 15 min
0.47
100%
Takedown defense
79%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.21evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1484Strikes26.5 vs 25.0Takedowns0.2 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.50Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Luiz CaneEliot Marshall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Luiz Cane(4 fights)Eliot Marshall(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -69.0|Blue +69.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luiz CaneTargetEliot Marshall

By target zone

27
44% acc · 93%
Head
2
29% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
2
100% acc · 7%
Leg
0

By position

5
36% acc · 17%
Distance
2
29% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
24
49% acc · 83%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Luiz Cane rounds
0
even
0
Eliot Marshall rounds
Round 1Luiz Cane edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:59
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
29 / 63
Sig Strikes
2 / 7
46%
Sig Str %
28%
33 / 72
Total Strikes
2 / 7
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:59
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Eliot Marshall2 / 72 / 70 / 20
1Luiz Cane29 / 6333 / 720 / 00

Luiz Cane

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4

Eliot Marshall

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights3