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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Chris Camozzi won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1360

Luiz CanevsChris CamozziUFC Prediction Result

UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · Saturday, October 13, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Chris Camozzi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLuiz Cane: Pressure fightervsChris Camozzi: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Chris Camozzi wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Chris Camozzi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Camozzi at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Camozzi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Luiz Cane has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Luiz Cane (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Luiz Cane

Red Corner

Chris Camozzi

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1352

Elo

1360

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luiz Cane

oldest →

KOvs Cyrille Diabate · May 10

KOvs Eliot Marshall · Mar 11

KOvs Stanislav Nedkov · Aug 11

latest

Chris CamozziL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Riggs · Feb 16

vs Vitor Miranda · May 16

SUBvs Thales Leites · Aug 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 16

vs Trevor Smith · May 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luiz CaneMetricChris Camozzi

4.79

Strikes / min

3.57

5.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

60%

Strike defense

56%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.27

100%

Takedown defense

57%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.21evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luiz CaneChris Camozzi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luiz Cane(4 fights)Chris Camozzi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.8|Blue +8.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +300.0|Blue -300.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luiz CaneTargetChris Camozzi

By target zone

37% acc · 76%

Head

30% acc · 69%

55% acc · 11%

Body

58% acc · 11%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

79% acc · 20%

By position

40% acc · 89%

Distance

35% acc · 96%

50% acc · 7%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luiz Cane rounds

even

Chris Camozzi rounds

Round 1Chris Camozzi edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:12

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chris Camozzi edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 133

Sig Strikes

97 / 269

40.3%

Sig Str %

36.7%

64 / 142

Total Strikes

97 / 269

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:12

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Camozzi	35 / 77	35 / 77	0 / 0	0
1	Luiz Cane	15 / 32	24 / 41	1 / 1	1
2	Chris Camozzi	33 / 89	33 / 89	0 / 1	0
2	Luiz Cane	11 / 46	11 / 46	0 / 0	0
3	Chris Camozzi	29 / 103	29 / 103	0 / 0	0
3	Luiz Cane	29 / 55	29 / 55	0 / 2	0

Luiz Cane

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4

Chris Camozzi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19