Featherweight

3 Rounds

Luis Saldana won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1421

Luis SaldanavsBruno SouzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Saturday, March 26, 2022Columbus, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Luis Saldana won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLuis Saldana: Pressure fightervsBruno Souza: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Luis Saldana wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Luis Saldana wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luis Saldana at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luis Saldana has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bruno Souza has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Luis Saldana

Red Corner

Bruno Souza

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1495

Elo

1421

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luis Saldana

oldest →

vs Jordan Griffin · Apr 21

vs Austin Lingo · Aug 21

latest

Bruno Souza

oldest →

vs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luis SaldanaMetricBruno Souza

5.16

Strikes / min

3.73

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

5.30

60%

Strike defense

45%

0.64

TDs / 15 min

0.50

44%

Takedown defense

60%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.51Δ 3.08 — meaningful gap-1.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luis SaldanaBruno Souza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luis Saldana(3 fights)Bruno Souza(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +74.8|Blue -74.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luis SaldanaTargetBruno Souza

By target zone

38% acc · 49%

Head

28% acc · 56%

64% acc · 17%

Body

57% acc · 26%

78% acc · 35%

Leg

86% acc · 18%

By position

48% acc · 93%

Distance

37% acc · 97%

75% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luis Saldana rounds

even

Bruno Souza rounds

Round 1Luis Saldana edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns2

Control0:29

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Bruno Souza edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:52

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Luis Saldana edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:15

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

84 / 168

Sig Strikes

66 / 178

49.3%

Sig Str %

36.3%

88 / 173

Total Strikes

68 / 180

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 2

33%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:36

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bruno Souza	15 / 48	15 / 48	0 / 1
1	Luis Saldana	26 / 57	27 / 58	2 / 3
2	Bruno Souza	28 / 70	30 / 72	0 / 0
2	Luis Saldana	24 / 53	25 / 54	0 / 2
3	Bruno Souza	23 / 60	23 / 60	1 / 1
3	Luis Saldana	34 / 58	36 / 61	0 / 0

Luis Saldana

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Bruno Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2