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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Luis Pena won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1455

Luis PenavsSteven PetersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · Saturday, March 23, 2019Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Luis Pena won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLuis Pena: Submission grapplervsSteven Peterson: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Steven Peterson wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Luis Pena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steven Peterson at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steven Peterson has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Luis Pena (53.5%).
Luis Pena has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Luis Pena

Red Corner

Steven Peterson

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1494

Elo

1455

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luis Pena

oldest →

KOvs Matt Wiman · Jun 19

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 19

vs Steve Garcia · Feb 20

SUBvs Khama Worthy · Jun 20

vs Alexander Munoz · Apr 21

latest

Steven PetersonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Caceres · Jul 19

KOvs Martin Bravo · Sep 19

vs Chase Hooper · Jun 21

vs Julian Erosa · Feb 22

vs Lucas Alexander · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luis PenaMetricSteven Peterson

3.66

Strikes / min

4.76

3.12

Strikes absorbed / min

5.94

51%

Strike defense

53%

1.17

TDs / 15 min

1.42

48%

Takedown defense

64%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-1.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luis PenaSteven Peterson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luis Pena(8 fights)Steven Peterson(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.1|Blue -38.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -127.0|Blue +127.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luis PenaTargetSteven Peterson

By target zone

42% acc · 83%

Head

24% acc · 44%

90% acc · 17%

Body

75% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

43% acc · 69%

Distance

36% acc · 79%

50% acc · 23%

Clinch

70% acc · 21%

80% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luis Pena rounds

even

Steven Peterson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control2:14

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 2Steven Peterson edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:22

14Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:30Control

Round 3Luis Pena edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:11

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:21Control

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 112

Sig Strikes

34 / 85

48.3%

Sig Str %

42.7%

66 / 127

Total Strikes

57 / 109

1 / 3

TDs

4 / 8

25%

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:47

Ctrl Time

5:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Steven Peterson	13 / 31	21 / 40	1 / 3	0
1	Luis Pena	16 / 29	21 / 34	0 / 1	0
2	Steven Peterson	14 / 41	20 / 47	3 / 3	0
2	Luis Pena	23 / 57	26 / 60	0 / 0	0
3	Steven Peterson	7 / 13	16 / 22	0 / 2	1
3	Luis Pena	13 / 26	19 / 33	1 / 2	0

Luis Pena

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

Steven Peterson

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8