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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Luis Pena won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1534

Luis PenavsSteve GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, February 29, 2020Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Luis Pena won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLuis Pena: Submission grapplervsSteve Garcia: Elusive striker

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Steve Garcia wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Luis Pena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Garcia at +230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steve Garcia has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Luis Pena

Red Corner

Steve Garcia

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1494

Elo

1534

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luis Pena

oldest →

vs Steven Peterson · Mar 19

KOvs Matt Wiman · Jun 19

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 19

SUBvs Khama Worthy · Jun 20

vs Alexander Munoz · Apr 21

latest

Steve Garcia

oldest →

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 24

vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25

KOvs David Onama · Nov 25

KOvs Diego Lopes · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luis PenaMetricSteve Garcia

3.66

Strikes / min

5.39

3.12

Strikes absorbed / min

2.12

51%

Strike defense

59%

1.17

TDs / 15 min

0.86

48%

Takedown defense

88%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54Δ 2.73 — meaningful gap+3.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luis PenaSteve Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luis Pena(8 fights)Steve Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.3|Blue +40.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luis PenaTargetSteve Garcia

By target zone

63% acc · 89%

Head

47% acc · 71%

50% acc · 4%

Body

67% acc · 10%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

40% acc · 22%

Distance

52% acc · 67%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

79% acc · 70%

Ground

55% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luis Pena rounds

even

Steve Garcia rounds

Round 1Luis Pena edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control4:10

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Luis Pena edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control4:54

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Luis Pena edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control4:57

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 42

Sig Strikes

21 / 39

54.3%

Sig Str %

49%

58 / 95

Total Strikes

98 / 153

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

14:01

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Steve Garcia	15 / 26	26 / 38	1 / 1	0
1	Luis Pena	21 / 33	30 / 49	0 / 0	0
2	Steve Garcia	4 / 7	47 / 74	0 / 0	0
2	Luis Pena	6 / 6	25 / 37	0 / 1	1
3	Steve Garcia	2 / 6	25 / 41	0 / 0	1
3	Luis Pena	0 / 3	3 / 9	0 / 0	0

Luis Pena

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

Steve Garcia

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10