Lightweight

3 Rounds

Luis Pena won · SUB R1

Elo1494

Elo1491

Luis PenavsRichie SmullenUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · Friday, July 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Luis Pena won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:32

Style matchupLuis Pena: Submission grapplervsRichie Smullen: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Luis Pena wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Luis Pena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luis Pena at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Richie Smullen has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Luis Pena has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Luis Pena (53.5%).
Luis Pena has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Luis Pena

Red Corner

Richie Smullen

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+315

(24%)

1494

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luis Pena

oldest →

KOvs Matt Wiman · Jun 19

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 19

vs Steve Garcia · Feb 20

SUBvs Khama Worthy · Jun 20

vs Alexander Munoz · Apr 21

latest

Richie SmullenNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luis PenaMetricRichie Smullen

3.66

Strikes / min

1.98

3.12

Strikes absorbed / min

2.26

51%

Strike defense

65%

1.17

TDs / 15 min

8.49

48%

Takedown defense

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.28

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luis Pena(8 fights)Richie Smullen(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luis PenaTargetRichie Smullen

By target zone

36% acc · 100%

Head

60% acc · 43%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 43%

By position

40% acc · 100%

Distance

60% acc · 43%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luis Pena rounds

even

Richie Smullen rounds

Round 1Luis Pena edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:02

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:40Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 23

Sig Strikes

7 / 9

34%

Sig Str %

77%

8 / 23

Total Strikes

15 / 17

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

100%

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

1:02

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Richie Smullen	7 / 9	15 / 17	2 / 3	0
1	Luis Pena	8 / 23	8 / 23	1 / 1	1

Luis Pena

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

Richie Smullen

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights1