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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Khama Worthy won · SUB R3

Elo1494

Elo1410

Luis PenavsKhama WorthyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · Saturday, June 27, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Khama Worthy won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:53

Style matchupLuis Pena: Submission grapplervsKhama Worthy: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Luis Pena wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Khama Worthy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luis Pena at -250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khama Worthy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Khama Worthy threatens submissions; Luis Pena has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Luis Pena (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Luis Pena

Red Corner

Khama Worthy

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1494

Elo

1410

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luis PenaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Steven Peterson · Mar 19

KOvs Matt Wiman · Jun 19

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 19

vs Steve Garcia · Feb 20

vs Alexander Munoz · Apr 21

latest

Khama WorthyL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Devonte Smith · Aug 19

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Sep 20

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Mar 21

KOvs Jai Herbert · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luis PenaMetricKhama Worthy

3.66

Strikes / min

4.18

3.12

Strikes absorbed / min

4.45

51%

Strike defense

46%

1.17

TDs / 15 min

0.00

48%

Takedown defense

57%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luis PenaKhama Worthy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luis Pena(8 fights)Khama Worthy(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +83.8|Blue -83.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luis PenaTargetKhama Worthy

By target zone

41% acc · 66%

Head

33% acc · 36%

75% acc · 16%

Body

82% acc · 33%

88% acc · 18%

Leg

94% acc · 31%

By position

47% acc · 87%

Distance

53% acc · 93%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

71% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luis Pena rounds

even

Khama Worthy rounds

Round 1Khama Worthy edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Luis Pena edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control3:52

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:21

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 77

Sig Strikes

55 / 101

50.7%

Sig Str %

58.7%

40 / 79

Total Strikes

66 / 114

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

41.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:13

Ctrl Time

0:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Khama Worthy	32 / 60	32 / 60	0 / 0	0
1	Luis Pena	16 / 31	16 / 31	0 / 1	0
2	Khama Worthy	5 / 7	16 / 20	0 / 0	0
2	Luis Pena	9 / 15	11 / 17	2 / 2	3
3	Khama Worthy	18 / 34	18 / 34	0 / 0	1
3	Luis Pena	13 / 31	13 / 31	1 / 4	0

Luis Pena

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

Khama Worthy

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5