Lightweight

3 Rounds

Luis Pena won · S-DEC

Elo1494

Elo1500

Luis PenavsAlexander MunozUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Saturday, April 17, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Luis Pena won

S-DEC

Style matchupLuis Pena: Submission grapplervsAlexander Munoz: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Luis Pena wins(67.0%)

Actual result: Luis Pena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luis Pena at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Munoz has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alexander Munoz (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Luis Pena

Red Corner

Alexander Munoz

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1494

Elo

1500

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'3"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luis Pena

oldest →

vs Steven Peterson · Mar 19

KOvs Matt Wiman · Jun 19

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 19

vs Steve Garcia · Feb 20

SUBvs Khama Worthy · Jun 20

latest

Alexander Munoz

oldest →

vs Carl Deaton · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luis PenaMetricAlexander Munoz

3.66

Strikes / min

3.70

3.12

Strikes absorbed / min

4.73

51%

Strike defense

55%

1.17

TDs / 15 min

3.00

48%

Takedown defense

100%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54Δ 1.57 — meaningful gap-1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luis PenaAlexander Munoz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luis Pena(8 fights)Alexander Munoz(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.5|Blue +6.5

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luis PenaTargetAlexander Munoz

By target zone

43% acc · 82%

Head

36% acc · 50%

63% acc · 13%

Body

53% acc · 25%

80% acc · 4%

Leg

95% acc · 25%

By position

47% acc · 98%

Distance

47% acc · 96%

22% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luis Pena rounds

even

Alexander Munoz rounds

Round 1Alexander Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 2Alexander Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 3Luis Pena edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:03

33Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:19Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

90 / 195

Sig Strikes

80 / 169

45%

Sig Str %

47.7%

90 / 195

Total Strikes

82 / 172

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 9

—

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

2:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Munoz	18 / 45	20 / 48	2 / 4
1	Luis Pena	21 / 43	21 / 43	0 / 0
2	Alexander Munoz	29 / 48	29 / 48	1 / 2
2	Luis Pena	22 / 59	22 / 59	0 / 0
3	Alexander Munoz	33 / 76	33 / 76	1 / 3
3	Luis Pena	47 / 93	47 / 93	0 / 0

Luis Pena

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

Alexander Munoz

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2