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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Spann won · U-DEC R3

Elo1368

Elo1519

Luis HenriquevsRyan SpannUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · Saturday, September 22, 2018Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Ryan Spann won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLuis Henrique: WrestlervsRyan Spann: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Luis Henrique wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Ryan Spann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luis Henrique at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luis Henrique threatens submissions; Ryan Spann has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Ryan Spann has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Luis Henrique

Red Corner

Ryan Spann

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1368

Elo

1519

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'5"

187.96 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luis HenriqueL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Dec 15

SUBvs Dmitrii Smoliakov · Jul 16

SUBvs Christian Colombo · Nov 16

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 17

vs Arjan Bhullar · Sep 17

latest

Ryan SpannW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25

SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25

KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luis HenriqueMetricRyan Spann

1.81

Strikes / min

3.11

2.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.92

47%

Strike defense

43%

3.09

TDs / 15 min

1.21

50%

Takedown defense

59%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41evenly matched on net striking-0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luis HenriqueRyan Spann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luis Henrique(6 fights)Ryan Spann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -151.1|Blue +151.1

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luis HenriqueTargetRyan Spann

By target zone

43% acc · 73%

Head

43% acc · 83%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

0% acc

By position

40% acc · 47%

Distance

34% acc · 50%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

83% acc · 11%

67% acc · 47%

Ground

78% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luis Henrique rounds

even

Ryan Spann rounds

Round 1Luis Henrique edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control0:57

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:14

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 3Ryan Spann edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:53

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:50Control

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 59

Sig Strikes

46 / 97

53.3%

Sig Str %

52.7%

48 / 78

Total Strikes

50 / 101

4 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

52.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:04

Ctrl Time

5:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Spann	16 / 50	16 / 50	0 / 0	0
1	Luis Henrique	12 / 27	12 / 27	2 / 6	0
2	Ryan Spann	14 / 23	15 / 24	0 / 0	1
2	Luis Henrique	10 / 20	19 / 29	1 / 4	1
3	Ryan Spann	16 / 24	19 / 27	0 / 0	0
3	Luis Henrique	8 / 12	17 / 22	1 / 1	0

Luis Henrique

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17