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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Luis Henrique won · SUB R2

Elo1368

Elo1372

Luis HenriquevsDmitrii SmoliakovUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · Saturday, July 23, 2016Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Luis Henrique won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:58

Model Prediction: Luis Henrique wins(57.3%)

Actual result: Luis Henrique wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luis Henrique at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luis Henrique enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Luis Henrique threatens submissions; Dmitrii Smoliakov has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Dmitrii Smoliakov has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dmitrii Smoliakov (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Luis Henrique

Red Corner

Dmitrii Smoliakov

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1368

Elo

1372

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'2"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luis HenriqueL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Dec 15

SUBvs Christian Colombo · Nov 16

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 17

vs Arjan Bhullar · Sep 17

vs Ryan Spann · Sep 18

latest

Dmitrii SmoliakovL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cyril Asker · Jan 17

KOvs Greg Hardy · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luis HenriqueMetricDmitrii Smoliakov

1.81

Strikes / min

1.44

2.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.81

47%

Strike defense

55%

3.09

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

75%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41Δ 1.96 — meaningful gap-2.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luis HenriqueDmitrii Smoliakov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luis Henrique(6 fights)Dmitrii Smoliakov(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.7|Blue +4.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luis HenriqueTargetDmitrii Smoliakov

By target zone

41% acc · 80%

Head

31% acc · 57%

100% acc · 20%

Body

80% acc · 29%

Leg

67% acc · 14%

By position

27% acc · 20%

Distance

27% acc · 43%

44% acc · 20%

Clinch

64% acc · 50%

63% acc · 60%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luis Henrique rounds

even

Dmitrii Smoliakov rounds

Round 1Luis Henrique edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:48

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Luis Henrique edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control3:12

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 43

Sig Strikes

14 / 34

47.5%

Sig Str %

37.5%

77 / 141

Total Strikes

66 / 95

1 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

12.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dmitrii Smoliakov	12 / 28	55 / 75	0 / 0	0
1	Luis Henrique	16 / 35	30 / 55	1 / 4	0
2	Dmitrii Smoliakov	2 / 6	11 / 20	0 / 1	0
2	Luis Henrique	4 / 8	47 / 86	0 / 3	1

Luis Henrique

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Dmitrii Smoliakov

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3