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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Luis Henrique won · SUB R3

Elo1368

Elo1362

Luis HenriquevsChristian ColomboUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Saturday, November 19, 2016Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Luis Henrique won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:12

Model Prediction: Christian Colombo wins(72.9%)

Actual result: Luis Henrique wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christian Colombo at +245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luis Henrique enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Luis Henrique threatens submissions; Christian Colombo has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Luis Henrique has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Christian Colombo has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Luis Henrique

Red Corner

Christian Colombo

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1368

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'5"

187.96 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luis HenriqueL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Dec 15

SUBvs Dmitrii Smoliakov · Jul 16

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 17

vs Arjan Bhullar · Sep 17

vs Ryan Spann · Sep 18

latest

Christian Colombo

oldest →

SUBvs Marcelo Golm · Oct 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luis HenriqueMetricChristian Colombo

1.81

Strikes / min

2.76

2.22

Strikes absorbed / min

4.02

47%

Strike defense

42%

3.09

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

33%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41evenly matched on net striking-1.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luis HenriqueChristian Colombo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luis Henrique(6 fights)Christian Colombo(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.3|Blue -5.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luis HenriqueTargetChristian Colombo

By target zone

55% acc · 84%

Head

8% acc · 33%

100% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 67%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

42% acc · 26%

Distance

8% acc · 33%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 67%

68% acc · 68%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luis Henrique rounds

even

Christian Colombo rounds

Round 1Luis Henrique edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control3:25

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Luis Henrique edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns3

Control4:11

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Luis Henrique edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:38

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 52

Sig Strikes

3 / 14

62%

Sig Str %

18.7%

57 / 87

Total Strikes

32 / 43

6 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christian Colombo	1 / 6	7 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Luis Henrique	15 / 24	29 / 44	2 / 2	0
2	Christian Colombo	2 / 5	23 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Luis Henrique	7 / 9	16 / 21	3 / 3	1
3	Christian Colombo	0 / 3	2 / 5	0 / 0	0
3	Luis Henrique	9 / 19	12 / 22	1 / 1	1

Luis Henrique

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Christian Colombo

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach—

Fights2