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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Luigi Vendramini won · KO/TKO
Elo1407
Luigi Vendramini
Elo1390

Luigi VendraminivsJessin AyariUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · Saturday, October 3, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Luigi Vendramini won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Jessin Ayari wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Luigi Vendramini wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jessin Ayari at -114 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Luigi Vendramini enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Luigi Vendramini has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Luigi Vendramini
Red Corner
VS
Jessin Ayari
Blue Corner
-109
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-114
(53%)
1407
Elo
1390
30
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luigi VendraminiL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Sep 18
L
vs Fares Ziam · Jun 21
L
KOvs Paddy Pimblett · Sep 21
latest
Jessin AyariL2 streak
oldest →
W
DECvs Jimmy Wallhead · Sep 16
L
vs Darren Till · May 17
L
vs Stevie Ray · Oct 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luigi VendraminiMetricJessin Ayari
2.82
Strikes / min
3.53
3.82
Strikes absorbed / min
3.59
57%
Strike defense
58%
1.11
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
50%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.00evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1483Strikes0.6 vs 3.6Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts2.40 vs 0.30Form-0.9 vs -0.8
Luigi VendraminiJessin Ayari

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Luigi Vendramini(4 fights)Jessin Ayari(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +17.4|Blue -17.4
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -2.5|Blue +2.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luigi VendraminiTargetJessin Ayari

By target zone

11
52% acc · 85%
Head
1
13% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 8%
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 8%
Leg
1
100% acc · 50%

By position

11
61% acc · 85%
Distance
2
22% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0% acc
2
40% acc · 15%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Luigi Vendramini rounds
0
even
0
Jessin Ayari rounds
Round 1Luigi Vendramini edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
13 / 23
Sig Strikes
2 / 10
56%
Sig Str %
20%
14 / 24
Total Strikes
2 / 10
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jessin Ayari2 / 102 / 100 / 00
1Luigi Vendramini13 / 2314 / 240 / 10

Luigi Vendramini

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4

Jessin Ayari

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4