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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Lucas Rocha won · U-DEC R3

Elo1507

Elo1406

Lucas RochavsStewart NicollUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Saturday, October 11, 2025Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Lucas Rocha won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Lucas Rocha wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Lucas Rocha wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lucas Rocha at +102 American odds

+$102 profit

$202 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stewart Nicoll enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Lucas Rocha has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Lucas Rocha

Red Corner

Stewart Nicoll

Blue Corner

+102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1507

Elo

1406

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'5"

162.56 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lucas Rocha

oldest →

SUBvs Clayton Carpenter · Oct 24

latest

Stewart NicollL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jesus Aguilar · Aug 24

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Apr 26

DECvs Alden Coria · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lucas RochaMetricStewart Nicoll

5.09

Strikes / min

3.63

3.67

Strikes absorbed / min

5.84

56%

Strike defense

49%

1.64

TDs / 15 min

1.63

76%

Takedown defense

28%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42Δ 3.63 — meaningful gap-2.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lucas RochaStewart Nicoll

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lucas Rocha(2 fights)Stewart Nicoll(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +100.4|Blue -100.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lucas RochaTargetStewart Nicoll

By target zone

44% acc · 70%

Head

31% acc · 91%

81% acc · 26%

Body

67% acc · 4%

80% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

100

49% acc · 87%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

73% acc · 10%

Clinch

0% acc

67% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lucas Rocha rounds

even

Stewart Nicoll rounds

Round 1Stewart Nicoll edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:09

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 2Lucas Rocha edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns1

Control0:58

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Lucas Rocha edged it

Sig. strikes60

Takedowns2

Control0:18

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

115 / 226

Sig Strikes

45 / 138

47.3%

Sig Str %

31.7%

130 / 244

Total Strikes

46 / 139

3 / 4

TDs

2 / 20

83%

TD %

5.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

1:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stewart Nicoll	14 / 38	14 / 38	2 / 12
1	Lucas Rocha	15 / 40	15 / 40	0 / 0
2	Stewart Nicoll	21 / 54	22 / 55	0 / 4
2	Lucas Rocha	40 / 87	49 / 96	1 / 1
3	Stewart Nicoll	10 / 46	10 / 46	0 / 4
3	Lucas Rocha	60 / 99	66 / 108	2 / 3

Lucas Rocha

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights2

Stewart Nicoll

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4