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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Mirsad Bektic won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1389

Lucas MartinsvsMirsad BekticUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves · Saturday, May 30, 2015Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Mirsad Bektic won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:30

Style matchupLucas Martins: Well-roundedvsMirsad Bektic: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mirsad Bektic wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Mirsad Bektic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mirsad Bektic at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mirsad Bektic enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Lucas Martins is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Mirsad Bektic has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Mirsad Bektic has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Lucas Martins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Lucas Martins

Red Corner

Mirsad Bektic

Blue Corner

+345

(22%)

Vegas Odds

-430

(81%)

1490

Elo

1389

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lucas Martins

oldest →

KOvs Jeremy Larsen · May 13

SUBvs Junior Hernandez · Sep 13

KOvs Alex White · Jul 14

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 14

DECvs Rob Whiteford · Apr 16

latest

Mirsad BekticL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Godofredo Pepey · Jan 18

vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 18

KOvs Josh Emmett · Jul 19

vs Dan Ige · Feb 20

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Sep 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lucas MartinsMetricMirsad Bektic

2.87

Strikes / min

2.43

4.14

Strikes absorbed / min

1.80

60%

Strike defense

57%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.98

76%

Takedown defense

92%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.27Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap+0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lucas MartinsMirsad Bektic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lucas Martins(7 fights)Mirsad Bektic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +101.4|Blue -101.4

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lucas MartinsTargetMirsad Bektic

By target zone

30% acc · 100%

Head

56% acc · 97%

Body

100% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

30% acc · 100%

Distance

47% acc · 21%

Clinch

Ground

60% acc · 79%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lucas Martins rounds

even

Mirsad Bektic rounds

Round 1Mirsad Bektic edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:27Control

Round 2Mirsad Bektic edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 23

Sig Strikes

39 / 69

33.5%

Sig Str %

59%

11 / 27

Total Strikes

78 / 123

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 5

—

TD %

60%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mirsad Bektic	17 / 25	52 / 73	3 / 5
1	Lucas Martins	5 / 18	9 / 22	0 / 0
2	Mirsad Bektic	22 / 44	26 / 50	0 / 0
2	Lucas Martins	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0

Lucas Martins

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Mirsad Bektic

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10