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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Lucas Martins won · Submission R1
Elo1490
Lucas Martins
Elo1353

Lucas MartinsvsJunior HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · Wednesday, September 4, 2013Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Lucas Martins won

Submission · Round 1 · 1:10

Model Prediction: Lucas Martins wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Lucas Martins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lucas Martins at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Lucas Martins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Lucas Martins
Red Corner
VS
Junior Hernandez
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
+100
(50%)
1490
Elo
1353
37
Age
27
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lucas Martins
oldest →
W
KOvs Jeremy Larsen · May 13
W
KOvs Alex White · Jul 14
L
vs Darren Elkins · Oct 14
L
KOvs Mirsad Bektic · May 15
W
DECvs Rob Whiteford · Apr 16
latest
Junior Hernandez
oldest →
L
DECvs Hugo Viana · Jan 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lucas MartinsMetricJunior Hernandez
2.87
Strikes / min
—
4.14
Strikes absorbed / min
—
60%
Strike defense
—
0.00
TDs / 15 min
—
76%
Takedown defense
—
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1502 vs 1500Strikes25.5 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.2 vs 0.0
Lucas MartinsJunior Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Lucas Martins(7 fights)Junior Hernandez(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +137.7|Blue -137.7
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Lucas Martins

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7

Junior Hernandez

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights1