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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Lucas Martins won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1490

Elo1353

Lucas MartinsvsJeremy LarsenUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · Saturday, May 18, 2013Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Lucas Martins won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:13

Style matchupLucas Martins: Well-roundedvsJeremy Larsen: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jeremy Larsen wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Lucas Martins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremy Larsen at +285 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lucas Martins is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jeremy Larsen has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Lucas Martins has 76pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Lucas Martins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Lucas Martins

Red Corner

Jeremy Larsen

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1490

Elo

1353

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lucas Martins

oldest →

SUBvs Junior Hernandez · Sep 13

KOvs Alex White · Jul 14

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 14

KOvs Mirsad Bektic · May 15

DECvs Rob Whiteford · Apr 16

latest

Jeremy LarsenL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Proctor · Jun 12

KOvs Andre Fili · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lucas MartinsMetricJeremy Larsen

2.87

Strikes / min

4.87

4.14

Strikes absorbed / min

5.75

60%

Strike defense

57%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.49

76%

Takedown defense

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.27evenly matched on net striking-0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lucas MartinsJeremy Larsen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lucas Martins(7 fights)Jeremy Larsen(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.9|Blue -137.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -232.0|Blue +232.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lucas MartinsTargetJeremy Larsen

By target zone

28% acc · 72%

Head

47% acc · 92%

100% acc · 13%

Body

50% acc · 2%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

75% acc · 6%

By position

34% acc · 85%

Distance

47% acc · 73%

31% acc · 10%

Clinch

48% acc · 19%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

67% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lucas Martins rounds

even

Jeremy Larsen rounds

Round 1Jeremy Larsen edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:12Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Jeremy Larsen edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

Round 3Lucas Martins edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 111

Sig Strikes

52 / 108

44%

Sig Str %

63%

44 / 116

Total Strikes

59 / 116

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 7

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

3:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jeremy Larsen	17 / 43	24 / 51	2 / 4
1	Lucas Martins	17 / 46	20 / 49	0 / 0
2	Jeremy Larsen	31 / 61	31 / 61	0 / 3
2	Lucas Martins	18 / 59	20 / 61	0 / 0
3	Jeremy Larsen	4 / 4	4 / 4	0 / 0
3	Lucas Martins	4 / 6	4 / 6	0 / 0

Lucas Martins

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Jeremy Larsen

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3