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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Lucas Martins won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1490

Elo1492

Lucas MartinsvsAlex WhiteUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · Wednesday, July 16, 2014Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Lucas Martins won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:08

Style matchupLucas Martins: Well-roundedvsAlex White: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Lucas Martins wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Lucas Martins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lucas Martins at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex White is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Lucas Martins has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Lucas Martins

Red Corner

Alex White

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1490

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lucas Martins

oldest →

KOvs Jeremy Larsen · May 13

SUBvs Junior Hernandez · Sep 13

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 14

KOvs Mirsad Bektic · May 15

DECvs Rob Whiteford · Apr 16

latest

Alex White

oldest →

KOvs Mitch Clarke · Sep 17

vs James Krause · Jan 18

SUBvs Jim Miller · Sep 18

vs Dan Moret · Mar 19

vs Rafael Fiziev · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lucas MartinsMetricAlex White

2.87

Strikes / min

3.76

4.14

Strikes absorbed / min

3.07

60%

Strike defense

60%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.92

76%

Takedown defense

71%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.27Δ 1.96 — meaningful gap+0.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lucas MartinsAlex White

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lucas Martins(7 fights)Alex White(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +227.0|Blue -227.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lucas MartinsTargetAlex White

By target zone

31% acc · 68%

Head

17% acc · 48%

58% acc · 13%

Body

48% acc · 48%

83% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

36% acc · 94%

Distance

26% acc · 98%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lucas Martins rounds

even

Alex White rounds

Round 1Lucas Martins edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:12

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Lucas Martins edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 140

Sig Strikes

42 / 159

38.3%

Sig Str %

25.3%

53 / 140

Total Strikes

42 / 159

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex White	20 / 71	20 / 71	0 / 0
1	Lucas Martins	25 / 66	25 / 66	0 / 0
2	Alex White	16 / 62	16 / 62	0 / 0
2	Lucas Martins	16 / 47	16 / 47	0 / 1
3	Alex White	6 / 26	6 / 26	0 / 0
3	Lucas Martins	12 / 27	12 / 27	0 / 0

Lucas Martins

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Alex White

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10